Four out of five motorists expect a government U-turn over plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030.
The research by Auto Trader for its Road to 2030 Report also reveals a flatlining demand for electric cars.
So far this year, the EV share of new car enquiries on the platform ‘is stuck at 18 percent‘.
This mirrors year-to-date new car registrations of electric cars which, despite a strong performance in June, are sat below 20 percent.
Based on the current trajectory, Auto Trader predicts EVs will reach just 45 per cent of all new car sales by 2030. That’s significantly short of the 80 percent Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate – and the 2030 ban on regular, non-hybrid petrol and diesel cars.
Even a doubling of the current rate of growth of EV sales wouldn’t be enough to meet the 2030 target.
Used car threat to new EV sales?
Auto Trader is also warning of a surprise threat to new electric car sales coming from used electric cars – enquiries for which have grown over 90 percent in just two years.
Used electric cars generate a staggering 15 times the number of sales enquiries on Auto Trader as new EVs.
So many buyers bypassing the new market could leave EV sales below even the 28 percent ZEV Mandate target for 2025, never mind 80 percent by 2030.
Steep depreciation means used EVs are now as affordable as comparable petrol cars – overcoming the affordability issue that Auto Trader says is the biggest barrier to EV adoption.
More than half of motorists say affordability is their biggest concern around electric cars. Almost 80 percent intend to spend less than £20,000 on their next car, while just 7.6 percent expect to spend £30,000 or more.
There are just 33 new EVs on sale for £30,000 or less, compared to 108 petrol and diesel cars.
‘Need to act now’
“There is genuine concern that 80 percent of consumers doubt the government can meet its 2030 goal of banning new petrol and diesel vehicle sales,” said Auto Trader commercial director, Ian Plummer.
“While the availability of affordable new and used EVs is increasing, and the £1.4 billion recently committed by the government to support the transition is promising, it may take time for these improvements to reach and reassure the wider public.
“The issue has always been affordability and new electric models coming to market under £20,000 should help to close the gap between electric sales and transition targets.
“But this new analysis questions if that will be enough – there’s plenty for the industry and government to do now to set us up for success.”
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