Electric vehicle sales will overtake those of petrol cars by 2028 and account for 38 percent of new car registrations. However, this will still leave them shy of ZEV Mandate targets.
That’s according to industry intelligence provider Cox Automotive, which forecasts petrol car sales will be down to 30 percent market share by 2028. The figure equates to 1.4 million fewer petrol cars being sold.
Diesel will fare even worse, predicts Cox Automotive. By 2028, it will have a share of just six percent, a hefty fall of 76 percent since 2020. This equates to two million fewer diesel cars sold.
By contrast, the rise of EVs has been “remarkable,” says Cox, with registrations up by 560 percent since 2020.
In just four years, nearly a million electric vehicles have entered the UK market, taking just shy of a 20 percent market share in 2024.
Two million milestone
The experts are forecasting just over two million new car registrations in 2025. That’s a modest 1.5 percent increase on 2024.
And there will be many more new car brands chasing those two million new car buyers, too. Due to the introduction of new entrant brands from China and beyond, there are now more than 60 cars brands available in the UK.
Notably, new brands are often more affordable than established ones. This can make them tempting in the switch to electric, as nearly seven in 10 car buyers say they’re not willing to pay more for an EV than a petrol or diesel alternative.
On average, EVs currently cost 12 percent more than a petrol or diesel car, according to Cox Automotive. But new entrants are already helping drive down this gap.
Interestingly, Cox also discovered that more than 85 percent of consumers now want stronger government incentives to boost EV sales. Without them, the ZEV Mandate target of 80 percent of new vehicles being EVs by 2030 may be in jeopardy.
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